{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "id": "ext_checkpoint_outcomes",
  "question_id": "r04_on_pace_goal_hits",
  "title": "Does being on pace mean you will hit your goal?",
  "status": "ready",
  "as_of": "2026-09-12T14:12:22Z",
  "n": 3517336,
  "input_export_id": "private-20260912-0934",
  "input_as_of": "2026-09-12T13:37:16Z",
  "live_json_as_of": "2026-09-12T04:11:06Z",
  "input_asset_sha256": "cb4e0ab7432010de29755ec5d75ca3b370e64e481eda5b20c44b359f39552204",
  "input_manifest_sha256": "a6f534d40bac291e0a1bc2eeb70633660acd00a710a090320876736de9c30f4d",
  "analysis_script_sha256": "7c6959b427fa1b06bb9600bb3377ecb226257d14aa0ec61a71a63f42bc87a3dd",
  "analysis_version": 1,
  "engine": "DuckDB 1.4.4",
  "corpus": {
    "n_records": 4462379,
    "n_cities": 34,
    "n_race_years": 256
  },
  "cohort": {
    "deduplicated": 4462379,
    "complete": 3830211,
    "increasing": 3604993,
    "timing_eligible": 3595426,
    "eligible": 3517336,
    "source_quality_excluded": 78090,
    "raw": 4462379,
    "duplicates_removed": 0,
    "missing_or_unparsed": 632168,
    "non_increasing": 225218,
    "outside_quality_bounds": 9567
  },
  "methodology_prose": [
    "On pace means elapsed time within \u00b11% of the target\u2019s even-pace time at that checkpoint. A goal is achieved only when the finish is strictly under the target. Divide successes by all eligible on-pace finishes for that goal and checkpoint.",
    "This window includes runners just ahead of and just behind the target; it is narrower than the older core table\u2019s time-budget definition. Results pool editions and are descriptive historical frequencies, not a validated personal forecast. Goals are inferred benchmarks, not runners\u2019 declared intentions.",
    "Use complete, strictly increasing elapsed checkpoints at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 42.195 km. Clock strings must parse as H:MM:SS or M:SS. No missing splits are interpolated.",
    "Remove exact duplicate race records, ignoring database IDs, ingestion timestamps and source URLs. Retain finishes from 90 minutes to 12 hours with every section between 2 and 20 minutes per km. These quality filters can exclude genuine unusual performances; the analysis describes this eligible cohort, not every entrant.",
    "Each observation is a race finish. The same person can appear in multiple races. No runner identities are linked across races. Public cells require at least 100 observations; matched comparisons additionally require at least 20 per group in each stratum.",
    "Apply the reviewed source-quality edition exclusions for this exact export after the timing checks. Known invalid split grids, incomplete ingestion, unreconciled HOLD editions and a selected top-finisher field do not contribute to the analyses or prior benchmarks. Report source exclusions separately; an already invalid timing row is not counted twice. Missing age or recorded gender alone does not exclude an otherwise eligible finish from the overall cohort. Other sparse editions are not declared incomplete merely from their size."
  ],
  "observational": true,
  "minimum_public_cell": 100,
  "source_quality": {
    "version": 1,
    "release_tag": "private-export-20260912-0934",
    "reviewed_edition_policy": true,
    "editions": [
      {
        "city": "Honolulu",
        "year": 2016,
        "category": "invalid_split_grid",
        "reason": "Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.",
        "raw_records": 20118,
        "deduplicated_records": 20118,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      },
      {
        "city": "Rotterdam",
        "year": 2012,
        "category": "invalid_split_grid",
        "reason": "Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.",
        "raw_records": 7542,
        "deduplicated_records": 7542,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      },
      {
        "city": "Eindhoven",
        "year": 2009,
        "category": "invalid_split_grid",
        "reason": "Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.",
        "raw_records": 1407,
        "deduplicated_records": 1407,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      },
      {
        "city": "Eindhoven",
        "year": 2010,
        "category": "invalid_split_grid",
        "reason": "Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.",
        "raw_records": 1462,
        "deduplicated_records": 1462,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      },
      {
        "city": "Frankfurt",
        "year": 2019,
        "category": "invalid_split_grid",
        "reason": "Producer explicitly force-dropped this 5 km grid; numerically plausible rows are not reinstated.",
        "raw_records": 12513,
        "deduplicated_records": 12513,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 10624
      },
      {
        "city": "New York",
        "year": 2008,
        "category": "unreconciled_hold",
        "reason": "Previously partial ingestion has grown to 38,047 records, but source-total reconciliation and explicit completion evidence are absent; keep the prior hold pending review.",
        "raw_records": 38047,
        "deduplicated_records": 38047,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 37387
      },
      {
        "city": "Chicago",
        "year": 2016,
        "category": "incomplete_ingestion",
        "reason": "Producer handoff identifies this 6,512-record edition as incomplete and on HOLD.",
        "raw_records": 6512,
        "deduplicated_records": 6512,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 6506
      },
      {
        "city": "Tokyo",
        "year": 2026,
        "category": "selected_field",
        "reason": "Source notes identify top-500 PDFs, not a representative full marathon field.",
        "raw_records": 353,
        "deduplicated_records": 353,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 353
      },
      {
        "city": "Amsterdam",
        "year": 2025,
        "category": "unreconciled_hold",
        "reason": "Source audit marks HOLD: 23,328 listed versus 23,325 retrieved. This conservative hold does not establish a large bias from the three missing records.",
        "raw_records": 23325,
        "deduplicated_records": 23325,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 23220
      },
      {
        "city": "Valencia",
        "year": 2017,
        "category": "incomplete_ingestion",
        "reason": "Source audit marks HOLD: 3,373 listed detail pages missing; the observed records also lack 20 km.",
        "raw_records": 12485,
        "deduplicated_records": 12485,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      },
      {
        "city": "Valencia",
        "year": 2018,
        "category": "incomplete_ingestion",
        "reason": "Producer handoff retains an incomplete/HOLD status; the edition also lacks the observed 20 km checkpoint.",
        "raw_records": 19236,
        "deduplicated_records": 19236,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      }
    ],
    "policy_sha256": "c08e83c993025dc41c0344be7b5442d74b3fb0588c38949481d5bc0a08f45fa0",
    "script_sha256": "433e8b9566b5afd809f4de1180fab222e63ad40678a33f6c93f08712cf820c77"
  },
  "source_quality_script_sha256": "433e8b9566b5afd809f4de1180fab222e63ad40678a33f6c93f08712cf820c77"
}