{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "id": "weather_screen",
  "as_of": "2026-09-12T14:12:27Z",
  "input": {
    "repository": "koolkam00/htw-live-study",
    "release_tag": "private-export-20260912-0934",
    "release_published_at": "2026-09-12T13:56:21Z",
    "asset": "htw-private-export-FULL-20260912-0934.tar.gz",
    "asset_sha256": "cb4e0ab7432010de29755ec5d75ca3b370e64e481eda5b20c44b359f39552204",
    "bundle": "FULL",
    "manifest_sha256": "a6f534d40bac291e0a1bc2eeb70633660acd00a710a090320876736de9c30f4d",
    "as_of": "2026-09-12T13:37:16Z",
    "race_conditions_sha256": "82b4c71e3e25dd376754edcab71a3c8a40d38fbda338b88840e2d68ea2142faf"
  },
  "calculation": {
    "script_sha256": "2056378339cad53ef0c9c3137297b4993156ff2631807d2319b9dc39efe0698a",
    "pacing_script_sha256": "7c6959b427fa1b06bb9600bb3377ecb226257d14aa0ec61a71a63f42bc87a3dd",
    "duckdb_version": "1.4.4",
    "numpy_version": "2.5.3",
    "source_quality_script_sha256": "433e8b9566b5afd809f4de1180fab222e63ad40678a33f6c93f08712cf820c77"
  },
  "source_quality": {
    "version": 1,
    "release_tag": "private-export-20260912-0934",
    "reviewed_edition_policy": true,
    "editions": [
      {
        "city": "Honolulu",
        "year": 2016,
        "category": "invalid_split_grid",
        "reason": "Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.",
        "raw_records": 20118,
        "deduplicated_records": 20118,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      },
      {
        "city": "Rotterdam",
        "year": 2012,
        "category": "invalid_split_grid",
        "reason": "Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.",
        "raw_records": 7542,
        "deduplicated_records": 7542,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      },
      {
        "city": "Eindhoven",
        "year": 2009,
        "category": "invalid_split_grid",
        "reason": "Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.",
        "raw_records": 1407,
        "deduplicated_records": 1407,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      },
      {
        "city": "Eindhoven",
        "year": 2010,
        "category": "invalid_split_grid",
        "reason": "Producer explicitly force-dropped this incomplete 5 km grid.",
        "raw_records": 1462,
        "deduplicated_records": 1462,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      },
      {
        "city": "Frankfurt",
        "year": 2019,
        "category": "invalid_split_grid",
        "reason": "Producer explicitly force-dropped this 5 km grid; numerically plausible rows are not reinstated.",
        "raw_records": 12513,
        "deduplicated_records": 12513,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 10624
      },
      {
        "city": "New York",
        "year": 2008,
        "category": "unreconciled_hold",
        "reason": "Previously partial ingestion has grown to 38,047 records, but source-total reconciliation and explicit completion evidence are absent; keep the prior hold pending review.",
        "raw_records": 38047,
        "deduplicated_records": 38047,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 37387
      },
      {
        "city": "Chicago",
        "year": 2016,
        "category": "incomplete_ingestion",
        "reason": "Producer handoff identifies this 6,512-record edition as incomplete and on HOLD.",
        "raw_records": 6512,
        "deduplicated_records": 6512,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 6506
      },
      {
        "city": "Tokyo",
        "year": 2026,
        "category": "selected_field",
        "reason": "Source notes identify top-500 PDFs, not a representative full marathon field.",
        "raw_records": 353,
        "deduplicated_records": 353,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 353
      },
      {
        "city": "Amsterdam",
        "year": 2025,
        "category": "unreconciled_hold",
        "reason": "Source audit marks HOLD: 23,328 listed versus 23,325 retrieved. This conservative hold does not establish a large bias from the three missing records.",
        "raw_records": 23325,
        "deduplicated_records": 23325,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 23220
      },
      {
        "city": "Valencia",
        "year": 2017,
        "category": "incomplete_ingestion",
        "reason": "Source audit marks HOLD: 3,373 listed detail pages missing; the observed records also lack 20 km.",
        "raw_records": 12485,
        "deduplicated_records": 12485,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      },
      {
        "city": "Valencia",
        "year": 2018,
        "category": "incomplete_ingestion",
        "reason": "Producer handoff retains an incomplete/HOLD status; the edition also lacks the observed 20 km checkpoint.",
        "raw_records": 19236,
        "deduplicated_records": 19236,
        "timing_eligible_excluded": 0
      }
    ],
    "policy_sha256": "c08e83c993025dc41c0344be7b5442d74b3fb0588c38949481d5bc0a08f45fa0",
    "script_sha256": "433e8b9566b5afd809f4de1180fab222e63ad40678a33f6c93f08712cf820c77"
  },
  "cohort": {
    "deduplicated": 4462379,
    "complete": 3830211,
    "increasing": 3604993,
    "timing_eligible": 3595426,
    "eligible": 3517336,
    "source_quality_excluded": 78090,
    "raw": 4462379,
    "duplicates_removed": 0,
    "missing_or_unparsed": 632168,
    "non_increasing": 225218,
    "outside_quality_bounds": 9567,
    "weather_rows": 251,
    "weather_unique_valid_rows": 250,
    "eligible_editions_before_weather": 196,
    "weather_analysis_editions": 192,
    "weather_analysis_courses": 27,
    "weather_analysis_finishes": 3507382
  },
  "exclusions": {
    "invalid_weather_rows": 1,
    "weather_error: observed hour differs from scheduled start by more than 30 minutes": 1,
    "no_valid_unique_weather_editions": 3,
    "no_valid_unique_weather_finishes": 9940,
    "fewer_than_100_finishes_editions": 1,
    "fewer_than_100_finishes_finishes": 14
  },
  "prespecified_gate": {
    "locked_before_outcomes": true,
    "minimum_finishes_per_edition": 100,
    "minimum_editions": 30,
    "minimum_courses": 10,
    "minimum_courses_with_half_iqr_range": 10,
    "maximum_vif": 10,
    "minimum_valid_bootstrap_fraction": 0.95,
    "bootstrap_draws": 6000,
    "bootstrap_seed": 20260911,
    "family_comparisons": 3,
    "confidence": 0.9833333333333333,
    "practical_difference_pp": 1.0,
    "association": "Interval excludes zero, absolute IQR estimate at least 1 percentage point, and every leave-one-course-out estimate has the same sign.",
    "precise_null": "Entire interval lies strictly inside \u00b11 percentage point and every leave-one-course-out estimate is also strictly inside \u00b11 percentage point."
  },
  "outcome": {
    "label": "Median pace change: 20\u201340 km versus 0\u201320 km",
    "unit": "%",
    "positive_means": "slower second 20 km"
  },
  "methodology": [
    "The outcome is each edition's median individual percentage pace change from 0\u201320 km to 20\u201340 km: 100 \u00d7 ((time at 40 km \u2212 time at 20 km) / time at 20 km \u2212 1). Positive is slowing. These are equal-distance blocks, not measured half-marathon splits; the last 2.195 km is excluded.",
    "Each city/year must identify exactly one race and one weather row with a valid same-year race date. Keep at least 100 complete eligible finishes per edition and weight each retained edition equally. The number of finishes is not the number of independent weather observations.",
    "Use the producer's observed_at archive hour only when it is within 30 minutes of the supplied scheduled local start; either nearest hour is accepted at an exact half-hour tie. Temperature, dew point, humidity and wind must agree with that hour. Warming is temperature exactly four hourly readings later minus temperature at that start hour; no runner's finish time determines the window. Supplied start times may be approximate or refer to elite rather than mass starts.",
    "Fit one prespecified joint linear model of edition median pace change, with course fixed effects, a centered linear calendar-year term, centered start temperature and its square, start dew point, first-four-hours temperature change and start wind speed. Course denotes the supplied city, not a verified historical route. Course fixed effects are removed by within-course centering.",
    "Report each weather coefficient multiplied by that exposure's observed edition interquartile range (75th minus 25th percentile). This is a conditional regression contrast, not a prediction that sets dew point beyond the physically supported temperature range. The other modeled variables are held constant.",
    "Uncertainty resamples whole courses with replacement, keeping every edition within the drawn course and recomputing the model. The fixed seed is 20260911; 6,000 draws produce percentile intervals at 98.333333% confidence, an approximate Bonferroni adjustment for the three screened exposures. At least 95% of draws must have full rank. Repeated runners across courses are not separately clustered.",
    "Before seeing outcomes, require 30 editions, 10 courses, within-course exposure ranges at least half the overall IQR in at least 10 courses, and variance inflation factor no more than 10. A supported association additionally needs an interval excluding zero, an absolute IQR estimate of at least 1 percentage point and unchanged direction in every leave-one-course-out refit. A precise null requires the entire interval and every leave-one-course-out estimate strictly inside \u00b11 percentage point. This 1-point threshold is a prespecified practical publication threshold, not a physiological boundary or a claim that smaller changes never matter to runners. All three screen results remain in the audit, including withheld candidates.",
    "This is an exploratory, adjusted edition-level association among eligible finishers. It does not establish a weather penalty, an individual forecast or a causal effect. Field composition, fitness, opening congestion, race organization, route changes and unmeasured conditions remain possible explanations. The opening 0\u201320 km baseline can itself be affected by weather and congestion. Runners who did not finish or lack valid splits are not represented.",
    "Relative humidity changes with temperature. Dew point is the modeled moisture exposure; the raw humidity percentage is retained for context. Wind speed gives no runner-specific headwind or tailwind without a valid historical route, direction and personal exposure timeline. Scheduled-start weather is not personal wave-start weather.",
    "Use complete, strictly increasing elapsed checkpoints at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 42.195 km. Clock strings must parse as H:MM:SS or M:SS. No missing splits are interpolated.",
    "Remove exact duplicate race records, ignoring database IDs, ingestion timestamps and source URLs. Retain finishes from 90 minutes to 12 hours with every section between 2 and 20 minutes per km. These quality filters can exclude genuine unusual performances; the analysis describes this eligible cohort, not every entrant.",
    "Apply the reviewed source-quality edition exclusions for this exact export after the timing checks. Known invalid split grids, incomplete ingestion, unreconciled HOLD editions and a selected top-finisher field do not contribute to the analyses or prior benchmarks. Report source exclusions separately; an already invalid timing row is not counted twice. Missing age or recorded gender alone does not exclude an otherwise eligible finish from the overall cohort. Other sparse editions are not declared incomplete merely from their size."
  ],
  "candidates": [
    {
      "id": "humidity",
      "title": "Do runners slow down more on humid days?",
      "status": "withheld",
      "takeaway_type": null,
      "summary": "This comparison does not yet support a sufficiently clear, stable takeaway.",
      "reasons": [
        "The adjusted estimate is too small, uncertain or course-sensitive for a supported practical takeaway"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "key": "dewpoint_c",
        "label": "Start dew point",
        "unit": "\u00b0C",
        "q25": 4.5,
        "q75": 10.8,
        "iqr": 6.300000000000001,
        "min": -4.1,
        "max": 22.0
      },
      "effect": {
        "estimate": 0.6457085860933786,
        "low": -0.3651218677291416,
        "high": 1.614145796656724,
        "confidence": 0.9833333333333333,
        "unit": "percentage points"
      },
      "support": {
        "editions": 192,
        "courses": 27,
        "finishes": 3507382,
        "vif": 2.6503851016410565,
        "courses_with_half_iqr_range": 25,
        "valid_bootstrap_draws": 6000,
        "failed_bootstrap_draws": 0,
        "leave_course_out_min": 0.38310580083785684,
        "leave_course_out_max": 0.8601710503199619,
        "failed_leave_course_out_fits": 0
      },
      "leave_course_out": [
        {
          "omitted_course": "Amsterdam",
          "estimate": 0.659096695155338
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Auckland",
          "estimate": 0.6768979284801042
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Austin",
          "estimate": 0.6345415789485717
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Barcelona",
          "estimate": 0.656664232532028
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Berlin",
          "estimate": 0.6321677816096192
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Boston",
          "estimate": 0.6265836075865161
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Chicago",
          "estimate": 0.630247211189098
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Copenhagen",
          "estimate": 0.5246614107833392
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Dubai",
          "estimate": 0.5084917464710215
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Eindhoven",
          "estimate": 0.752031581930105
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Gold Coast",
          "estimate": 0.5475063298364461
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Hamburg",
          "estimate": 0.6372552860311024
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Helsinki",
          "estimate": 0.6170811550164115
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "London",
          "estimate": 0.6591395550879138
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Madrid",
          "estimate": 0.6045505222953635
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Melbourne",
          "estimate": 0.6457085860933786
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "New York",
          "estimate": 0.8601710503199619
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Oslo",
          "estimate": 0.7430319570068844
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Paris",
          "estimate": 0.6457014002222898
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Prague",
          "estimate": 0.6162281740743624
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Rotterdam",
          "estimate": 0.7113749801091787
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Singapore",
          "estimate": 0.6457085860933786
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Stockholm",
          "estimate": 0.38310580083785684
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Sydney",
          "estimate": 0.6884494365061227
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Valencia",
          "estimate": 0.6067490017630802
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Warsaw",
          "estimate": 0.749817235541053
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Washington",
          "estimate": 0.7342090997329299
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "warming",
      "title": "What happens when race day gets warmer?",
      "status": "ready",
      "takeaway_type": "association",
      "summary": "An interquartile increase in first-four-hours temperature change was associated with 2.1 percentage points more slowing between the two 20 km blocks.",
      "reasons": [],
      "exposure": {
        "key": "warming_c",
        "label": "First-four-hours temperature change",
        "unit": "\u00b0C",
        "q25": 2.6000000000000005,
        "q75": 6.399999999999999,
        "iqr": 3.799999999999998,
        "min": -0.9000000000000021,
        "max": 13.6
      },
      "effect": {
        "estimate": 2.0684859965664524,
        "low": 1.5314115301369298,
        "high": 2.663187482870909,
        "confidence": 0.9833333333333333,
        "unit": "percentage points"
      },
      "support": {
        "editions": 192,
        "courses": 27,
        "finishes": 3507382,
        "vif": 1.2283001007278047,
        "courses_with_half_iqr_range": 22,
        "valid_bootstrap_draws": 6000,
        "failed_bootstrap_draws": 0,
        "leave_course_out_min": 1.953976732686286,
        "leave_course_out_max": 2.13735095114441,
        "failed_leave_course_out_fits": 0
      },
      "leave_course_out": [
        {
          "omitted_course": "Amsterdam",
          "estimate": 2.0536386093073156
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Auckland",
          "estimate": 2.0335505361964517
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Austin",
          "estimate": 2.071906020495358
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Barcelona",
          "estimate": 2.1158203195341225
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Berlin",
          "estimate": 2.13735095114441
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Boston",
          "estimate": 2.00779120906715
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Chicago",
          "estimate": 1.953976732686286
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Copenhagen",
          "estimate": 2.002264771785732
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Dubai",
          "estimate": 2.094094763937233
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Eindhoven",
          "estimate": 2.039264543596946
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Gold Coast",
          "estimate": 2.117984365018906
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Hamburg",
          "estimate": 2.097658049880062
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Helsinki",
          "estimate": 2.1038326281821838
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "London",
          "estimate": 2.0839936735800815
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Madrid",
          "estimate": 2.0611892032020824
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Melbourne",
          "estimate": 2.0684859965664524
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "New York",
          "estimate": 2.130020872514152
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Oslo",
          "estimate": 2.0282979045199583
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Paris",
          "estimate": 2.068498157065611
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Prague",
          "estimate": 2.0657323532351177
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Rotterdam",
          "estimate": 2.006534667784777
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Singapore",
          "estimate": 2.0684859965664524
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Stockholm",
          "estimate": 2.06915069655265
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Sydney",
          "estimate": 2.128102384931888
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Valencia",
          "estimate": 2.092157695380946
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Warsaw",
          "estimate": 2.045167835483943
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Washington",
          "estimate": 2.1133150453303196
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "wind",
      "title": "How do windy and calm races compare?",
      "status": "ready",
      "takeaway_type": "precise_null",
      "summary": "No material difference was detected in this pacing measure across the observed interquartile weather contrast.",
      "reasons": [],
      "exposure": {
        "key": "wind_mps",
        "label": "Start wind speed",
        "unit": "m/s",
        "q25": 2.1975000000000002,
        "q75": 4.3075,
        "iqr": 2.11,
        "min": 0.41,
        "max": 9.93
      },
      "effect": {
        "estimate": 0.3158148236035167,
        "low": -0.36447616515041176,
        "high": 0.8248884526832191,
        "confidence": 0.9833333333333333,
        "unit": "percentage points"
      },
      "support": {
        "editions": 192,
        "courses": 27,
        "finishes": 3507382,
        "vif": 1.2576156285478468,
        "courses_with_half_iqr_range": 25,
        "valid_bootstrap_draws": 6000,
        "failed_bootstrap_draws": 0,
        "leave_course_out_min": 0.21588062863300003,
        "leave_course_out_max": 0.4772328747918101,
        "failed_leave_course_out_fits": 0
      },
      "leave_course_out": [
        {
          "omitted_course": "Amsterdam",
          "estimate": 0.34681949963536135
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Auckland",
          "estimate": 0.28519756698650506
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Austin",
          "estimate": 0.30698433609344067
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Barcelona",
          "estimate": 0.32539069998567777
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Berlin",
          "estimate": 0.3204653386768014
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Boston",
          "estimate": 0.2389839849442292
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Chicago",
          "estimate": 0.2982435671958169
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Copenhagen",
          "estimate": 0.21588062863300003
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Dubai",
          "estimate": 0.32459009126540733
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Eindhoven",
          "estimate": 0.25412829827183814
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Gold Coast",
          "estimate": 0.4772328747918101
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Hamburg",
          "estimate": 0.31074574977019576
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Helsinki",
          "estimate": 0.35011343055567934
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "London",
          "estimate": 0.3159453067538863
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Madrid",
          "estimate": 0.3683303504955991
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Melbourne",
          "estimate": 0.3158148236035167
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "New York",
          "estimate": 0.23096983121203235
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Oslo",
          "estimate": 0.31249241149609086
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Paris",
          "estimate": 0.3157951691179014
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Prague",
          "estimate": 0.31463693391951697
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Rotterdam",
          "estimate": 0.36018491223363946
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Singapore",
          "estimate": 0.3158148236035167
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Stockholm",
          "estimate": 0.28680286671902633
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Sydney",
          "estimate": 0.3326641255895735
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Valencia",
          "estimate": 0.33893691194624953
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Warsaw",
          "estimate": 0.30371611455138825
        },
        {
          "omitted_course": "Washington",
          "estimate": 0.3296015235009866
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "editions": [
    {
      "city": "Amsterdam",
      "year": 2012,
      "race": "Amsterdam Marathon",
      "n": 9986,
      "pace_change_pct": 5.708859356053031,
      "finish_minutes": 233.56666666666666,
      "women_pct": 20.66893651111556,
      "median_recorded_age": null,
      "weather_race": "Amsterdam Marathon",
      "date": "2012-10-21",
      "scheduled_start": "09:00",
      "start_hour": "2012-10-21T09:00",
      "four_hour": "2012-10-21T13:00",
      "temp_c": 11.8,
      "dewpoint_c": 10.6,
      "humidity_pct": 92.0,
      "wind_mps": 6.14,
      "warming_c": 1.5
    },
    {
      "city": "Amsterdam",
      "year": 2013,
      "race": "Amsterdam Marathon",
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      "four_hour": "2017-10-22T12:00",
      "temp_c": 11.2,
      "dewpoint_c": 10.7,
      "humidity_pct": 97.0,
      "wind_mps": 1.2,
      "warming_c": 9.3
    },
    {
      "city": "Washington",
      "year": 2018,
      "race": "Washington Marathon",
      "n": 18994,
      "pace_change_pct": 12.545707369142356,
      "finish_minutes": 291.575,
      "women_pct": 46.467305464883644,
      "median_recorded_age": 40.0,
      "weather_race": "Washington Marathon",
      "date": "2018-10-28",
      "scheduled_start": "07:55",
      "start_hour": "2018-10-28T08:00",
      "four_hour": "2018-10-28T12:00",
      "temp_c": 9.4,
      "dewpoint_c": 7.8,
      "humidity_pct": 90.0,
      "wind_mps": 2.45,
      "warming_c": 4.1
    }
  ]
}