What happens after a faster start?
The first 6.21 mi is one of the few choices you can make before fatigue arrives. See what followed different starts.
What the data shows
Faster openings: 45.7% finished below 4:00. Similar openings: 57.9% finished below 4:00. Slower openings: 36.8% finished below 4:00.
Opening pace is compared with each runner’s earlier recorded best, not a known declared goal. 555,437 finishes are represented across the displayed groups; each group has its own denominator.
All courses · all ages · all recorded categories · all earlier-time bands. Each group shows its own sample size.
Explore the comparison
Finishes strictly below your threshold
Percent (%)
View exact values and sample sizes
| Group | Finishes strictly below your threshold | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| Faster opening | 45.7% | 382,829 |
| Similar opening | 57.9% | 97,545 |
| Slower opening | 36.8% | 75,063 |
How to read this
Each bar shows the share of a starting group that finished below your selected time. Starting speed is compared with each runner’s earlier marathon pace.
Keep in mind
Faster starts can reflect better fitness. These comparisons do not prove that starting faster improves a result.
How we calculated this
Use runners with a recorded best in the two strictly earlier calendar years. Classify the first 6.21 mi as more than 2% faster than that benchmark’s marathon pace, within 2%, or more than 2% slower. For each group, count finishes strictly below the selected time. Groups are observational and pool available editions; a prior-time filter narrows ability but does not eliminate confounding.
Runner comparison groups contain at least 100 eligible observations. Broader comparisons are labeled; a finish can belong to a runner with several races. Elevation describes the supplied course profile.
We check the raw timings and apply reviewed source-quality rules before forming these groups. Editions with known invalid split grids, incomplete ingestion, unresolved source checks or a selected field are excluded. Missing age or recorded gender alone does not remove an otherwise eligible finish from the overall comparison.
Input data: Marathon results, weather and course data. Read the full methods in source units or browse the marathons, years and data fields.