The research archive.

The wider work behind the study: 35 questions about race strategy, conditions, goals, runner differences, and improvement.

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Full personalized research guide

All twelve underlying comparisons, including returning runners and downhill starts.

  1. 1What does a race near my target look like?
  2. 2Which openings are associated with finishing under my target?
  3. 3Where do nearby finishes gain or lose time?
  4. 4How does pacing differ across age groups?
  5. 5What pace changes appear alongside the supplied terrain?
  6. 6What follows a fast opening on a downhill-start profile?
  7. 7What happened to runners at a similar checkpoint time?
  8. 8Which courses combine faster outcomes and consistency?
  9. 9How do outcomes differ across cooler and warmer editions?
  10. 10Where does my target sit among comparable results?
  11. 11How do runners change when they return to this course?
  12. 12Where did runners improving toward this time gain minutes?

Race strategy

  1. 1How do people actually pace a marathon?
  2. 2What does an unusually good race look like?
  3. 3What are the rewards and risks of an aggressive start?
  4. 4How do runners successfully respond to a slow start?
  5. 5Can two runners reach 20 km together but have different prospects?
  6. 6How early can the splits reveal how the race will finish?
  7. 7When can runners regain their rhythm after a bad patch?
  8. 8Is a negative split always associated with a better performance?
  9. 9Is there one good pacing strategy, or several?
  10. 10Which pacing approaches offer consistency, and which are more variable?

Courses & conditions

  1. 11What is each course’s pacing fingerprint?
  2. 12How do runners adjust their pace to climbs and descents?
  3. 13What would your time be on another course?
  4. 14Which marathon offers speed, and which offers consistency?
  5. 15Does knowing the course improve execution?
  6. 16How does weather change the way a marathon is run?
  7. 17Was it my pacing or a difficult race day?
  8. 18How does running with a group shape the race?
  9. 19How much does the opening crowd shape the rest of the race?
  10. 20Are stronger performers better at adjusting their pace to the course?

Goals & finishing

  1. 21Does being on pace mean you will hit your goal?
  2. 22How much of a marathon is decided after 30 km?
  3. 23How much finishing speed appears when a milestone is within reach?
  4. 24Do qualifying rules change how people race?
  5. 25What happens when a goal slips away?
  6. 26Does a strong finish suggest unused capacity?

Runner differences

  1. 27Do pacing changes follow distance or elapsed time?
  2. 28Do runners have persistent pacing habits?
  3. 29How do speed and pace retention vary by age?
  4. 30How does pacing differ across recorded gender groups?

Learning over time

  1. 31Does a near miss bring people back?
  2. 32What changes as runners gain experience?
  3. 33How does the previous marathon affect the next one?
  4. 34How have marathon speed and pacing changed over time?
  5. 35Where do runners gain the time that produces a personal best?

Supporting analyses