The study

Do runners bunch just before round-number finish times?

Compare the recorded finishes in the minute before and the minute after each milestone.

3,517,336 eligible finishes

How we measured it. Half-open one-minute windows immediately before and after 3:00, 3:30 and 4:00. These counts use eligible complete finishes. They do not reveal declared goals or establish a psychological mechanism.

Full methodology & sources

Marathons, years and recorded data. Chart samples may be smaller than the eligible analysis cohort.

Current study results, methods and source checksums (JSON)Study methodology

Finishes beside common milestones

finishes

Minute beforeMinute after
3:00
Minute before16,494 finishes
Minute after9,481 finishes
3:30
Minute before28,367 finishes
Minute after22,283 finishes
4:00
Minute before38,259 finishes
Minute after28,401 finishes
View exact values and sample sizes
GroupMinute beforeMinute afterMinute before: ObservationsMinute after: Observations
3:0016,494 finishes9,481 finishes3,517,3363,517,336
3:3028,367 finishes22,283 finishes3,517,3363,517,336
4:0038,259 finishes28,401 finishes3,517,3363,517,336

All research questions