Where is a target time won or lost?
Two close finish times can hide very different races. Find the sections where those paths separate.
What the data shows
Nearby finishes averaged 3:57:34 below the threshold and 4:02:25 above it.
Compare 183,675 finishes in the five minutes below 4:00 with 127,948 from 4:00 to under 4:05. Higher values mean more time spent than the target’s even-pace section budget.
All courses · all ages · all recorded categories · all earlier-time bands. Each group shows its own sample size.
Explore the comparison
Minutes relative to the even-pace section budget
Minutes
View exact values and sample sizes
| Group | Just below the threshold | Just above the threshold | Just below the threshold: Observations | Just above the threshold: Observations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–3.11 mi | -1.1 min | -0.7 min | 183,675 | 127,948 |
| 3.11–6.21 mi | -1.6 min | -1.2 min | 183,675 | 127,948 |
| 6.21–9.32 mi | -1.5 min | -1.1 min | 183,675 | 127,948 |
| 9.32–12.43 mi | -1.2 min | -0.8 min | 183,675 | 127,948 |
| 12.43–15.53 mi | -0.7 min | -0.2 min | 183,675 | 127,948 |
| 15.53–18.64 mi | -0 min | 0.6 min | 183,675 | 127,948 |
| 18.64–21.75 mi | 1.1 min | 1.9 min | 183,675 | 127,948 |
| 21.75–24.85 mi | 2.2 min | 3.1 min | 183,675 | 127,948 |
| 24.85–26.22 mi | 0.4 min | 0.8 min | 183,675 | 127,948 |
How to read this
Zero is the even-pace budget for your selected time. A positive bar means more minutes spent in that section; a negative bar means fewer.
Keep in mind
The groups are chosen by their eventual finish. Differences show what happened, not what caused the result.
How we calculated this
Compare finishes in the five minutes strictly below the selected target with finishes from the target up to, but excluding, five minutes above it. Subtract the target’s even-pace time budget from each mean section duration. Means reconcile with mean finish-time differences; selection on the outcome makes this descriptive.
Runner comparison groups contain at least 100 eligible observations. Broader comparisons are labeled; a finish can belong to a runner with several races. Elevation describes the supplied course profile.
We check the raw timings and apply reviewed source-quality rules before forming these groups. Editions with known invalid split grids, incomplete ingestion, unresolved source checks or a selected field are excluded. Missing age or recorded gender alone does not remove an otherwise eligible finish from the overall comparison.
Input data: Marathon results, weather and course data. Read the full methods in source units or browse the marathons, years and data fields.